Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
